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AdWeek: As Recession Wanes, Core 4 Emerge

Marketers that fail to take account of ‘the diversity of consumers’ recession experiences’ will fall short

Dec 6, 2009
Mark Dolliver

adweek/photos/stylus/117124-shopping.jpgA sentimentalist might regard the current recession as a unifying experience for people of all sorts — a common ordeal that has narrowed the pre-recession differences between those of different classes and conditions. Marketers, who feel obliged to be more hardheaded about such matters, will instead focus on the distinct ways in which the recession has affected various consumer cohorts and will influence their post-recession behavior.

Along those lines, a report released last month by Decitica Marketing Strategy & Research identifies four consumer types that will emerge from the recession, each posing its own challenges for marketers. Marketing strategies that fail to take account of “the diversity of consumers’ recession experiences” will fall short, it warns. Based on survey data gathered over the summer, the report says the adult population is divisible into Steadfast Frugalists (20 percent of the population), Involuntary Penny-Pinchers (29 percent), Pragmatic Spenders (29 percent) and Apathetic Materialists (22 percent), with the names giving a quick hint at what each is like.

Because the Pragmatic Spenders have an upper-income skew (accounting for 37 percent of all those with household income of $75,000-plus), the report identifies this group as “the most attractive to marketers.” Compared to the other population segments, they “have the greatest capacity — both financial and psychological — to willfully resurrect their past spending patterns.” But the “Pragmatic” part of their makeup also means marketers have a challenge in getting these people to spend freely. Sixty-nine percent are “highly confident” in their ability to control their spending; 73 percent are highly confident about “resisting the temptation to spend now and worry later”; 59 percent are highly confident when it comes to sticking to a budget.

Continue reading AdWeek: As Recession Wanes, Core 4 Emerge

Marketing to the Post-Recession Consumers

Welcome to Decitica!

News Release:

PR Newswire – Four Distinct Types of Consumers Emerging From the Recession, Study by Decitica Reveals

You may download the highlights of our study ‘Marketing to the Post-Recession Consumers’ by clicking here or on the image below.

Marketing to the Post-Recession Consumers - November 2009

What is this Study About?

This research fills a major gap in marketers’ understanding of how the recession is shaping consumer behavior.  We believe that marketing in the post-recession world needs a new lens to reflect the many differences in the way consumers have internalized the recession experience.

Specifically, this research by Decitica concludes:

1. The effects of the Great Recession on consumer behavior are so profound that many of the assumptions underpinning consumer segmentation are no longer valid; and

2. Marketing strategies that do not fully recognize the diversity of consumers’ recession experiences won’t have the desired potency in the post-recession world.

It is undeniable that this recession has shaken the bedrock of American consumerism.  Many have accepted this radical change as the “new normal,” and not just a cyclical phenomenon.

With consumer sentiment oscillating from mildly encouraging to disappointing,  the trillion dollar question remains: When will the American consumer loosen the reins on restraint and ratchet up spending to meaningful levels?

Experts posit that the household deleveraging process is far from complete.  Adjustment of household balance sheets, which had begun in earnest in the thick of the recession, continues apace with nary a sign of ending anytime soon.

With this backdrop, the debate continues whether the American consumers are so indelibly scarred by the recession that they have forever abandoned the profligate spending habits of the past in favor a more restrained approach.

This study goes beyond superficial measures of consumer sentiment.  Using data from a proprietary survey, this research not only concludes that the recession has caused a profound, deep-rooted change in consumers’ spending habits but also that there are four distinct consumer segments emerging from the recession.   We provide highlights of our findings in the summary report.

Segmentation Approach

Our consumer segmentation approach is based on the premise that the best way to predict future behavior is to analyze:

(a) How intensely a particular activity is already being practiced (greater the frequency, greater the probability of repeating that action in the future),

(b) How much satisfaction is derived from this activity (greater the satisfaction, greater the likelihood of sticking to that behavior), and

(c) How confident someone is in practicing desired behaviors (higher the confidence level, higher the odds of being successful in accomplishing the goal).

This study gathered extensive data on the frequency and satisfaction with twenty nine different purchase and consumption activities and the self-efficacy (i.e., consumers’ beliefs about  their abilities to achieve certain outcomes) associated with various spending and saving strategies.

Subjecting these data into Cluster Analysis, we identified four distinct segments emerging from the recession.  They are:

  • Steadfast Frugalists
  • Involuntary Penny-Pinchers
  • Pragmatic Spenders, and
  • Apathetic Materialists
  • The Full Report

    The full report, available for a fee, contains many more details, including data and analysis of the following topics.

    1. 18 attitudes dealing with the effects of the recession
    2. Frequency of 29 behaviors practiced to cope with the recession
    3. Satisfaction associated with 29 behaviors practiced to cope with the recession
    4. Self-efficacy (i.e., self-confidence) associated with 15 spending and consumption restraint behaviors
    5. Recession’s effects on consumers’ emotional state (i.e., 19 different emotions)
    6. 15 measures of materialism, compulsive and impulsive buying
    7. 10 measures of consumers’ thinking styles
    8. 5 measures of maximizing-satisficing approach in buyer behavior
    9. Changing role of price in purchase decisions, value-orientation, brand effects, pre-purchase activities, etc.
    10. Expectations of future income
    11. Detailed data on saving behaviors
    12. Unique data on household budgeting practices
    13. Triggers for increasing spending

    Analyses of the above data are available for each of the segments identified in this study and also for a variety of demographic groups based on gender, income level and age group.  Custom statistical analysis and interpretation also provided for an additional fee.

    Consumers’ Income Expectations

    New York Times had a great story on an airline pilot whose income has been slashed by half due to a demotion.  The article captures what the family is enduring on so many levels.  Their story is not an exception.  In fact, many American families find themselves economically devastated as a direct result of the recession.

    Here are some data from our survey on what American households expect their income to be in 2009 (compared to 2008).    47% of Americans expect their income to drop, with about a third saying it will decline by more than 10%. (See chart 1.)

    Chart 1

    Chart 1

    Also, only a third are highly certain about their income in 2010. (See chart 2.)

    Given these income expectations among American consumers, it will take a while before they go back to spending the way they did in the past.  What matters most is the economy within households for economic recovery to be meaningful.  We will likely not see this for a long time, based on the data we are seeing from our survey and other sources.

    Chart 2

    Chart 2

    Coupon Nation

    New York Times  ran an interesting story recently on how America has become a coupon-clipping nation.  It appears even higher income households and the younger population have embraced coupons with gusto.

    In our ‘The New American Consumer’ survey, we found that 75% of consumers ALWAYS or OFTEN buy on sale or use coupons and discounts. That is 3 in 4!  [Click chart to the left.]

    Coupon Nation

    But you may ask..how many of them really find this SATISFYING? The answer: 40%. Yes, 4 in 10 really like cutting coupons and buying on sale.

    And what is really surprising is that more households with incomes above $100,000 find it SATISFYING than those making less than $100,000.  52% vs. 34%.  [Click chart  below.]

    Coupon Nation

    So no matter our income, we have all become one happy coupon-clipping, sale-chasing, discount-obsessed consumer nation.  This is the NEW AMERICAN CONSUMER!

    When Will Consumers Increase Their Spending?

    Triggers for Consumer SpendingNow that many, including our venerable Fed Chairman, are prophesying the end of the recession, the trillion dollar question remains when will American consumers increase their spending?

    As per a recent Decitica survey, consumers do not care whether the recession is almost over or what the experts think.  SEE CHART. What matters most is their own individual financial situation: Have they saved enough?  Have they paid off their debt?  Is their income going to increase? [CLICK ABOVE IMAGE TO VIEW CHART.]

    We know from various data that the American consumer is far from this desired situation.  So I ask…is it reasonable to expect that the American consumer is going to increase her/his spending anytime soon.  The answer, increasingly, is a big NO.

    We shall be releasing other data from our survey next week.

    Growing Up in a Recession: Beliefs and the Macroeconomy

    Interesting paper on how the recession experience can have lasting effects on individuals’ beliefs.

    Growing Up in a Recession: Beliefs and the Macroeconomy by Paola Giuliano and Antonio Spilimbergo

    Abstract

    Do generations growing up during recessions have different socio-economic beliefs than generations growing up in good times? We study the relationship between recessions and beliefs by matching macroeconomic shocks during early adulthood with self-reported answers from the General Social Survey. Using time and regional variations in macroeconomic conditions to identify the effect of recessions on beliefs, we show that individuals growing up during recessions tend to believe that success in life depends more on luck than on effort, support more government redistribution, but are less confident in public institutions. Moreover, we find that recessions have a long-lasting effect on individuals’ beliefs.

    Here is the link to the paper: http://ftp.iza.org/dp4365.pdf

    New frugality is the new normal, by necessity

    AP News Story: Further evidence of how the recession is changing consumer behavior.

    Tightwads and Spendthrifts – Men and Women

    Here is an intersting slide on the distribution of tightwads and spendthrifts among men and women.  Both sexes are almost identically distributed in the sample. See http://www.recessionwire.com/2009/09/04/financial-opposites-poor-match/ for more on how opposites attract.

    Emotional and Psychological Impact of the Recession on Consumer Behavior – Gender Differences